As expected, upon the closing of the entry box for the 150th renewal of the Kentucky Derby, an overflow field of 22 has been assembled.
That has necessitated the designation by Churchill Downs’ Racing Secretary Ben Huffman of the two with, in his opinion, the least chance of victory.
This year, that distinction goes to Epic Road and Mugatu. In order for Epic Road to join the post parade on Saturday afternoon and run for the roses, at least one of the 20 entrants will have to be scratched. For Mugatu to join in, there would have to be a second scratch.
This year’s Morning Line – more accurately in the case of the Derby, a pre-dawn estimate by the Downs’ handicapper of how the betting will go – has established Fierceness as the 5-2 favorite, with Sierra Leone a close second choice at 3-1. At 8-1, Catching Freedom is the only other prospective starter below double-digit odds.
In this day and age, thoroughbred horses of high quality are often lightly raced. Part of the reason for this phenomenon is the huge size of purses in major races. This year’s Kentucky Derby winning owner will receive a minimum of $3,100,000, the exact amount depending upon the number of starters.
Fierceness has only made five lifetime starts. His six and a half-length victory in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile earned $1,040,000 for his connections. And he has added $576,600 for winning this year’s Florida Derby, a race in which he led from pillar to post and won by 13 and a half lengths.
He certainly figures to be on or near the lead this Saturday afternoon.
If there’s a negative to consider, the son of major stakes winner City of Light does not appreciate a wet race track. Evidence of this fact is provided by his 7th place finish in last year’s Champagne Stakes, contested over a surface rated as sloppy.
His connections will surely be hoping that the sun will shine brightly on Derby Day.
Sierra Leone is even more lightly raced than Fierceness, having made only four career starts. A son of Gun Runner, who finished third in the 2016 Derby, he has won three of them and finished second in the other.
Their past performances indicate two major differences in these leading Derby contenders. While Fierceness will be up front in the early stages of the race, Sierra Leone is what is referred to in racing as a “dead closer.” He will be coming from way back and rider John Velasquez will have to use all of his skills to get a clean trip through such a bulky field.
The other distinction is that Sierra Leone has no problem with a wet track, a fact he proved by winning the Risen Star Stakes in the slop at the New Orleans’ Fair Grounds. If anything, rain would move him up.
Of the top three, Catching Freedom will be keeping company with Sierra Leone, off the pace in the early stages of the Run for the Roses. A closing third in the Risen Star, this son of Constitution remained in the Pelican State and closed from last to first to win the Louisiana Derby.
This year’s Kentucky Derby is certainly not a three-horse race, but those mentioned above appear to be the prime contenders to visit Churchill Downs’ winner’s circle on Saturday afternoon.
May the best horse win.
