LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The year was 1959 and, with the Kentucky Derby approaching, even the most seasoned handicappers were struggling with their predictions and investments at the betting window.
Whitney Tower, Sports Illustrated’s turf writer, entitled his lead, “The Slot Machine Derby.”
“Never before has this prestigious American classic been so wide open,” Tower wrote. “Were you to give a lusty pull on the handle of the imaginary Derby slot machine, any one of the eight likely favorites could trip the lock on the jackpot vault.”
Déjà vu. To put it mildly, this year’s Derby is scrambled.
Races leading up to this edition of the Run for the Roses have been ongoing since the current crop of thoroughbreds officially turned three on Jan. 1. And only three of the 20 passing Churchill Downs’ entry box on Monday of this week have prevailed in more than one preparatory event for which points are given toward earning a stall in the Downs’ starting gate.
Epicenter, a likely co-favorite with Zandon on Saturday, won the Louisiana Derby and its final prep, the Risen Star, at the New Orleans’ Fair Grounds. In Florida, White Abarrio won the Florida Derby and its major prep, the Holy Bull. And Tiz the Bomb dominated the events for this year’s sophomores run over Turfway Park’s synthetic surface – the Jeff Ruby Stakes and its prep, the John Battaglia.
The lack of competitive form is easily explained. Thoroughbred horses do not race as often as they did in times past.
Incredibly, Taiba won the Santa Anita Derby, a Grade I event and a major Derby prep, in only his second career start less than two weeks ago. Zozos, second to Epicenter in New Orleans, and Charge It, second to White Abbarrio in the Florida Derby, will be making only their fourth career starts. There’s not much foundation here.
Lack of racing experience may have an even greater effect on inexperienced members of the field when the roar of the approximately 150,000 humans jamming every corner of the premises reaches its full crescendo a second or so after the starter springs the latch on the gate.
Some will handle it, and some won’t.
With another wide-open Derby on tap, may the best horse win and, of much more importance, may each equine contestant and his rider have a safe trip.
