Local legislators, USCA professor discuss results, importance of Iowa

Earlier this week, S.C. Sen. Lindsey Graham suggested during a visit to Aiken that he had never seen such uncertainty in the Republican presidential nominating process.

That surely held true during the Iowa caucuses Tuesday, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum just eight votes apart and with 25 percent of the vote each.

Libertarian Ron Paul, 76, received 21 percent, but that effort disappointed his supporters. Newt Gingrich was next at 14 percent and was strikingly defiant during his post-caucus remarks.

With just 10 percent of the vote, Texas Gov. Rick Perry canceled Wednesday's appearance in Aiken, announcing he was headed home to reassess his candidacy. He changed course that morning, saying he would come to South Carolina after all, although he's not expected until the weekend. Michele Bachmann only got five percent and did drop out of the race.

"This looks like the Republicans are having a hard time to find someone to run against Obama," said Dr. Bob Botsch, a USC Aiken political science professor. For the past 30 years, he has coordinated surveys in each election year and has taught courses related to the presidential campaigns.

Santorum emerged in recent weeks, but Botsch isn't sure about his staying power. Santorum still has to raise enough money and put together an organization, he said.

"Most of the surveys show Romney certainly has the best chance against the president," said Botsch. "In terms of his experience (in government) and his campaign experience, he should be in the best position to make the best case and then move to the center after the primaries. But getting social conservatives and the Tea Party to go along will be an interesting test, something hard to predict."

Romney's task in South Carolina might have gotten easier. Perry's change of heart could cut into Santorum's hopes in the state. Romney has also gotten endorsements from S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley and Ariz. Sen. John McCain, the 2008 GOP candidate. McCain is campaigning with Romney today and again Friday.

Yet two Aiken legislators - Reps. Bill Taylor and Bill Hixon - are convinced that Perry has a real shot at winning in South Carolina. Both are members of his state leadership team and said he'll arrive in the state Sunday. They expect Perry to visit Aiken next week.

"I'm pleased he (Perry) has reaffirmed he needed to stay in the race," said Taylor. "South Carolina is probably more aligned with Perry than many other candidates. He's a conservative, a southerner and will do very well. We conservatives need a choice and many don't feel they have much of a choice."

Taylor calls the Iowa caucuses goofy, with just 123,000 people driving themselves to meetings to talk about the candidates. Iowa is not indicative of much of anything, he said.

Yet if people think the Iowa event is important, it becomes reality, Botsch said.

"It's a winnowing out process," he said. "New Hampshire (on Jan. 10) will do that, and South Carolina will provide the role of kingmaker."

K.T. Ruthven, the Aiken County Republican Party's executive committeeman, said he predicted the 1, 2, 3 finish in Iowa.

"But a lot of people in South Carolina are not sure about Romney," Ruthven said prior to the announcement that Perry was staying in the race. "I talked to a lot of people at a fundraiser for (Congressman) Joe Wilson. They still aren't decided what they will do when they get into a voting booth. After South Carolina, we'll dwindle to three or four legitimate candidates and then after Florida, it will be between two people. I'm going to choose whichever candidate has the best chance to beat Obama."

Romney is the most electable of the candidates, said David Lobb, a former county party vice chairman. He also believes Santorum as his running mate could make a formidable team. Romney's Morman faith is an issue with some voters, but Lobb appreciates their Christian ideals and their dedication to those ideals.

"Santorum is very good candidate and I respect his values," said Lobb. "I think South Carolina is up for grabs, but that Santorum will win. Romney will make a very good showing. At the end, the Republicans will join together for whoever the nominee is. They know they need to do this to become a successful nation again."